6 Month Buying Plan Abercrombie & Fitch
The Task:
The task was to create a comprehensive 6-month buying plan for Fall 2024 for Abercrombie & Fitch. This involved projecting total seasonal sales with a planned 4% increase based on historical data, market trends, and economic conditions. The plan required breaking down sales by month, calculating beginning-of-month (BOM) inventory using stock-to-sales ratios, determining turnover, planning markdowns, calculating monthly purchases, and ensuring gross margin goals were met. Alongside the numerical plan in Excel, a 2,500-word written justification was developed to support the sales projection using internal brand strategies and external market research.
Skills Used
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Research upcoming fashion trends, color palettes, and consumer behavior to predict what styles will be in demand for the target season.
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Use historical sales reports and performance metrics to determine bestsellers, slow movers, and seasonal patterns that guide inventory decisions.
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Develop a budget framework to manage inventory levels, ensuring you’re investing the right amount at the right time without overbuying or understocking.
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Coordinate with brands or suppliers to place timely orders, negotiate terms, secure exclusives, or plan markdowns.
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Curate a balanced merchandise mix by category (e.g., tops vs. bottoms), style, color, and price point that appeals to your target customer.
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Monitor sell-through rates to adjust future buys, initiate reorders, or plan for markdowns and promotional pricing.
Process
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To start the plan, I analyzed last year’s actual Fall sales, which totaled $145,200. After researching market trends, fashion forecasts, and consumer spending patterns, I applied a planned increase of 4%, resulting in a projected sales plan of $151,008 for Fall 2024. This increase reflects optimism for growth, especially given positive economic signals and increased interest in women's apparel for the season.
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I distributed the total sales plan across the six-month season from August to January. I used last year’s monthly sales percentages as a baseline and made slight adjustments where appropriate. For example, I allocated 15% of total sales to August, which translated to $22,651.20, and 29% to December, projecting $43,792.32 in that month alone. These shifts take into account expected holiday performance and typical seasonal shopping behavior.
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Using last year’s stock-to-sales ratios as a guide, I updated this year’s ratios for each month to reflect the changes in sales. For August, I used a planned S/S ratio of 3.5, which resulted in a BOM of $79,279.20. I repeated this process for September through January, adjusting slightly to ensure inventory levels would support planned sales increases. I used February's BOM of $68,000 based on last year's data to complete the inventory section and calculate the seasonal average inventory of $77,305.47.
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With sales and inventory figures established, I calculated turnover by dividing total planned sales by the average inventory. The result was a turnover rate of 1.95, which is slightly below the target of 2.0 but still within an acceptable range. This indicated that my inventory was well-aligned with my sales goals, though I could consider tightening stock slightly to improve efficiency.
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I planned markdowns to represent approximately 42% of total sales, leading to a total markdown budget of $63,423.36 for the season. These markdown dollars were then split by month, guided by last year’s markdown patterns. For example, August’s markdowns totaled $9,957.47, which is 43.96% of August’s sales. This allowed for realistic clearance strategies while maintaining profit margins.
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With sales, markdowns, and inventory flows in place, I calculated monthly purchases using the formula: Sales + Markdowns + EOM – BOM. This gave me precise monthly purchasing figures, such as $36,534.88 in August and $43,928.23 in November, ensuring I would have the right amount of merchandise flowing in to support each month’s business needs without overstocking.
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Finally, I reviewed gross margin based on the planned initial markups and markdown strategy. The goal was to stay within a GM% range of 37%–40%, which aligns with typical industry standards for women’s apparel. This confirmed that the plan could support both sales growth and profitability, even after markdowns were taken into account.
Sales Plan Justification Summary
To support our planned 4% sales increase for Fall 2024 at Abercrombie & Fitch, we conducted in-depth research into both internal brand developments and broader external market conditions. Internally, Abercrombie has made major strides through rebranding efforts that prioritize inclusivity, store redesigns, and a shift in target demographics to include millennial and Gen Z consumers. These changes, combined with an expanded product assortment and more welcoming retail environments, have attracted a larger customer base and improved in-store engagement. Additionally, the brand’s strong omnichannel presence—bolstered by influencer marketing, loyalty programs, and convenient services like BOPIS—has driven higher traffic and conversions across platforms.
Externally, a favorable economic outlook supports our forecast. Consumer confidence is projected to reach its highest levels since 2021, due to lowering inflation, wage growth, and increased household purchasing power. These trends are expected to fuel discretionary spending throughout the season. We also considered the timing of the 2024 presidential election and upcoming environmental regulations, both of which present short-term challenges but are unlikely to hinder long-term consumer activity. Sustainability is increasingly important in retail, and Abercrombie’s ongoing eco-conscious efforts position the brand well for continued success. Taken together, these factors justify our projection of $151,008 in Fall 2024 sales, up from $145,200 the previous year.
Outcome:
The outcome of our 6-month buying plan reflects a well-balanced and strategically developed approach to drive steady growth for Fall 2024. With a 4% sales increase, we successfully projected $151,008 in sales—supported by realistic inventory levels, efficient turnover, and a controlled markdown strategy that maintains profitability. Our average inventory of $77,305.47 and turnover rate of 1.95 indicate that our inventory is moving at a healthy pace, while markdowns were planned at 42% of sales to allow for seasonal promotions without eroding margins. Overall, the plan aligns closely with Abercrombie & Fitch’s brand direction and the current retail landscape, resulting in a profitable and data-driven forecast that supports both growth and operational efficiency.